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            na (Ed.)Abstract Global warming increases ecosystem respiration (ER), creating a positive carbon-climate feedback. Thermal acclimation, the direct responses of biological communities to reduce the effects of temperature changes on respiration rates, is a critical mechanism that compensates for warming-induced ER increases and dampens this positive feedback. However, the extent and effects of this mechanism across diverse ecosystems remain unclear. By analyzing CO2 flux data from 93 eddy covariance sites worldwide, we observed thermal acclimation at 84 % of the sites. If sustained, thermal acclimation could reduce projected warming-induced nighttime ER increases by at least 25 % across most climate zones by 2041-2060. Strong thermal acclimation is particularly evident in ecosystems at high elevation, with low-carbon-content soils, and within tundra, semi-arid, and warm-summer Mediterranean climates, supporting the hypothesis that extreme environments favor the evolution of greater acclimation potential. Moreover, ecosystems with dense vegetation and high productivity such as humid tropical and subtropical forests generally exhibit strong thermal acclimation, suggesting that regions with substantial CO2 uptake may continue to serve as strong carbon sinks. Conversely, some ecosystems in cold continental climates show signs of enhancing thermal responses, the opposite of thermal acclimation, which could exacerbate carbon losses as climate warms. Our study underscores the widespread yet climate-specific patterns of thermal acclimation in global terrestrial ER, emphasizing the need to incorporate these patterns into Earth System Models for more accurate carbon-climate feedback projections.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available January 10, 2026
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            Abstract We examined the seasonality of photosynthesis in 46 evergreen needleleaf (evergreen needleleaf forests (ENF)) and deciduous broadleaf (deciduous broadleaf forests (DBF)) forests across North America and Eurasia. We quantified the onset and end (StartGPPand EndGPP) of photosynthesis in spring and autumn based on the response of net ecosystem exchange of CO2to sunlight. To test the hypothesis that snowmelt is required for photosynthesis to begin, these were compared with end of snowmelt derived from soil temperature. ENF forests achieved 10% of summer photosynthetic capacity ∼3 weeks before end of snowmelt, while DBF forests achieved that capacity ∼4 weeks afterward. DBF forests increased photosynthetic capacity in spring faster (1.95% d−1) than ENF (1.10% d−1), and their active season length (EndGPP–StartGPP) was ∼50 days shorter. We hypothesized that warming has influenced timing of the photosynthesis season. We found minimal evidence for long‐term change in StartGPP, EndGPP, or air temperature, but their interannual anomalies were significantly correlated. Warmer weather was associated with earlier StartGPP(1.3–2.5 days °C−1) or later EndGPP(1.5–1.8 days °C−1, depending on forest type and month). Finally, we tested whether existing phenological models could predict StartGPPand EndGPP. For ENF forests, air temperature‐ and daylength‐based models provided best predictions for StartGPP, while a chilling‐degree‐day model was best for EndGPP. The root mean square errors (RMSE) between predicted and observed StartGPPand EndGPPwere 11.7 and 11.3 days, respectively. For DBF forests, temperature‐ and daylength‐based models yielded the best results (RMSE 6.3 and 10.5 days).more » « less
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            Abstract The Arctic–Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO2fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic–Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO2sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean ± standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, −548 ± 140 Tg C yr−1; trend, −14 Tg C yr−1;P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO2source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO2sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic–Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, −319 ± 140 Tg C yr−1; trend, −9 Tg C yr−1), and the permafrost region becomes CO2neutral (budget, −24 ± 123 Tg C yr−1; trend, −3 Tg C yr−1), underscoring the importance of fire in this region.more » « lessFree, publicly-accessible full text available February 1, 2026
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            Abstract Tundra and boreal ecosystems encompass the northern circumpolar permafrost region and are experiencing rapid environmental change with important implications for the global carbon (C) budget. We analysed multi-decadal time series containing 302 annual estimates of carbon dioxide (CO2) flux across 70 permafrost and non-permafrost ecosystems, and 672 estimates of summer CO2flux across 181 ecosystems. We find an increase in the annual CO2sink across non-permafrost ecosystems but not permafrost ecosystems, despite similar increases in summer uptake. Thus, recent non-growing-season CO2losses have substantially impacted the CO2balance of permafrost ecosystems. Furthermore, analysis of interannual variability reveals warmer summers amplify the C cycle (increase productivity and respiration) at putatively nitrogen-limited sites and at sites less reliant on summer precipitation for water use. Our findings suggest that water and nutrient availability will be important predictors of the C-cycle response of these ecosystems to future warming.more » « less
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            Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF) can provide key information about the state of photosynthesis and offers the prospect of defining remote sensing-based estimation of Gross Primary Production (GPP). There is strong theoretical support for the link between SIF and GPP and this relationship has been empirically demonstrated using ground-based, airborne, and satellite-based SIF observations, as well as modeling. However, most evaluations have been based on monthly and annual scales, yet the GPP:SIF relations can be strongly influenced by both vegetation structure and physiology. At the monthly timescales, the structural response often dominates but short-term physiological variations can strongly impact the GPP:SIF relations. Here, we test how well SIF can predict the inter-daily variation of GPP during the growing season and under stress conditions, while taking into account the local effect of sites and abiotic conditions. We compare the accuracy of GPP predictions from SIF at different timescales (half-hourly, daily, and weekly), while evaluating effect of adding environmental variables to the relationship. We utilize observations for years 2018–2019 at 31 mid-latitudes, forested, eddy covariance (EC) flux sites in North America and Europe and use TROPOMI satellite data for SIF. Our results show that SIF is a good predictor of GPP, when accounting for inter-site variation, probably due to differences in canopy structure. Seasonally averaged leaf area index, fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fPAR) and canopy conductance provide a predictor to the site-level effect. We show that fPAR is the main factor driving errors in the linear model at high temporal resolution. Adding water stress indicators, namely canopy conductance, to a multi-linear SIF-based GPP model provides the best improvement in the model precision at the three considered timescales, showing the importance of accounting for water stress in GPP predictions, independent of the SIF signal. SIF is a promising predictor for GPP among other remote sensing variables, but more focus should be placed on including canopy structure, and water stress effects in the relationship, especially when considering intra-seasonal, and inter- and intra-daily resolutions.more » « less
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            null (Ed.)Warming-induced carbon loss through terrestrial ecosystem respiration ( Re ) is likely getting stronger in high latitudes and cold regions because of the more rapid warming and higher temperature sensitivity of Re ( Q 10 ). However, it is not known whether the spatial relationship between Q 10 and temperature also holds temporally under a future warmer climate. Here, we analyzed apparent Q 10 values derived from multiyear observations at 74 FLUXNET sites spanning diverse climates and biomes. We found warming-induced decline in Q 10 is stronger at colder regions than other locations, which is consistent with a meta-analysis of 54 field warming experiments across the globe. We predict future warming will shrink the global variability of Q 10 values to an average of 1.44 across the globe under a high emission trajectory (RCP 8.5) by the end of the century. Therefore, warming-induced carbon loss may be less than previously assumed because of Q 10 homogenization in a warming world.more » « less
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            Abstract. Past efforts to synthesize and quantify the magnitude and change in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems across the rapidly warming Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) have provided valuable information but were limited in their geographical and temporal coverage. Furthermore, these efforts have been based on data aggregated over varying time periods, often with only minimal site ancillary data, thus limiting their potential to be used in large-scale carbon budget assessments. To bridge these gaps, we developed a standardized monthly database of Arctic–boreal CO2 fluxes (ABCflux) that aggregates in situ measurements of terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange and its derived partitioned component fluxes: gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration. The data span from 1989 to 2020 with over 70 supporting variables that describe key site conditions (e.g., vegetation and disturbance type), micrometeorological and environmental measurements (e.g., air and soil temperatures), and flux measurement techniques. Here, we describe these variables, the spatial and temporal distribution of observations, the main strengths and limitations of the database, and the potential research opportunities it enables. In total, ABCflux includes 244 sites and 6309 monthly observations; 136 sites and 2217 monthly observations represent tundra, and 108 sites and 4092 observations represent the boreal biome. The database includes fluxes estimated with chamber (19 % of the monthly observations), snow diffusion (3 %) and eddy covariance (78 %) techniques. The largest number of observations were collected during the climatological summer (June–August; 32 %), and fewer observations were available for autumn (September–October; 25 %), winter (December–February; 18 %), and spring (March–May; 25 %). ABCflux can be used in a wide array of empirical, remote sensing and modeling studies to improve understanding of the regional and temporal variability in CO2 fluxes and to better estimate the terrestrial ABZ CO2 budget. ABCflux is openly and freely available online (Virkkala et al., 2021b, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1934).more » « less
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